Managing seasonal demand

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - For Mundaring and Midland businesses, seasonal swings—from Easter and Christmas to June/July tax time and summer bushfire risks—can strain cashflow and service capacity. Build simple buffers, automate monitoring, and pre‑approve actions so your team absorbs peaks and troughs while the owner only handles strategic exceptions.

“Resilience is built before the storm.” — Business maxim

Disclaimer. This blog provides general guidance only and is not tailored accounting, financial, HR, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional before changing operational or financial processes.

Introduction

Seasonality isn’t a surprise—it’s a schedule. Treat demand variation like a compliance checkpoint: forecast, buffer, and execute pre‑approved moves. In the Perth Hills, plan for transport constraints (trains stopping at Midland) and summer bushfire interruptions that can affect access, staffing, and customer behaviour. Bookkeeper/ops own the mechanics; the owner sets thresholds and approves only material deviations.

Three strategies to implement seasonal demand management

• Strategy 1 Build a rolling seasonal calendar and cash buffer

  • What to do: Map known peaks (Easter, Christmas, tax time) and local risk windows (summer bushfire). Pair each window with cashflow buffers (2–4 weeks fixed costs) and staffing plans.

  • Automation tip: Link calendar dates to AR/AP forecasts and payroll to surface cash pinch points.

  • Owner rule: Approve buffer size and hiring/overtime decisions only when thresholds are breached.

• Strategy 2 Pre‑approve tactical actions for peaks and troughs

  • Peaks: Temporary staffing, extended hours, prioritized service tiers, surge pricing or minimum call‑out fees.

  • Troughs: Accelerated debtor collections, maintenance/project work, promotional bundles, discretionary spend deferrals.

  • Local tip: Include travel adjustments for bus reliance beyond Midland and on‑site safety protocols for high‑risk weeks.

• Strategy 3 Monitor leading indicators and trigger early moves

  • Indicators: AR aging, booking volume, inbound enquiries, stock levels, and forecast vs actual variance.

  • Actions: If indicators trip thresholds (e.g., AR days rising, booking spike), execute the pre‑approved playbook within 48 hours.

  • Exception rule: Owner steps in only for pricing changes, staff scheduling beyond limits, or supplier renegotiations.

Implementation checklist

• Ownership: Ops/bookkeeper maintain the seasonal calendar, buffers, and triggers; owner sets thresholds and approves strategic moves.

• Intent: Absorb peaks/troughs with minimal owner intervention; protect cash and service quality.

• Automation: Weekly AR/AP updates, payroll forecasts, booking dashboards tied to calendar windows.

• Documentation: Minimum viable—seasonal calendar, buffer policy, trigger thresholds, 3‑minute SOP videos.

• Exception thresholds: Cash < reserve; AR days > target; booking variance >20%; staff overtime cap exceeded.

• Communication: One‑line weekly status; detailed brief only when thresholds trip.

Next steps

1. This week: Publish the seasonal calendar and set buffer amounts, AR targets, and trigger thresholds.

2. Within 14 days: Connect automated inputs (AR/AP, payroll, bookings); draft the peak/trough playbook.

3. Within 30 days: Run a simulation across a past peak; refine buffer sizes, travel rules, and escalation logic.

Useful AI prompts

• “Create a seasonal demand calendar with buffers and threshold triggers for Mundaring/Midland.”

• “Draft a 3‑minute SOP: how to execute the peak/trough playbook when indicators trip.”

• “Generate a weekly dashboard: AR days, bookings, stock, and variance vs forecast with color‑coded alerts.”

Mission Command Principles for Business

• Build mutual trust: Leaders trust teams to act; teams trust leadership to support.

• Create shared understanding: Everyone knows the vision, objectives, and constraints.

• Provide clear commander’s intent: Goals and outcomes are explicit; execution is flexible.

• Exercise disciplined initiative: Teams solve problems without waiting, aligned to strategy.

• Use mission orders: Objectives are assigned; methods are left open.

• Accept prudent risk: Smart risks are encouraged for innovation and growth.

These principles ensure the owner sets the aim, the team executes, and the system flags exceptions — without dragging the owner into the weeds.